单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,Futures Analysis on the prices of soybeans,The first group:,郑金凤、裴雪珂、李楠、卢海翔、彭小红、刘雅萍、陈澜、王欣,商务英语061班,5,th,June,2009 from:Dalian Commodity Exchange,0909,3,916,5,756,69,582,22,542.83,The current price of soybeans,Price:,5,th,June,2009,DCE 0909 soybeans futures contract price 3,916 yuan per ton.,Open Interest,:69,582,Volume,:5,756,Current analysis on of the price,Soybeans Futures has a seasonal price pattern,its from a low around harvest time to a peak the following spring.,However,the most significant factor for soybean price is the crush margin,or the difference between the cost of the beans and the price of their end products.If the price for soybean meal and soybean oil are relatively high,crushers will bid for beans and drive beans price up.,11010,CBOT Soybean,5,th,June,2009 from:Chicago Board of Trade,DALIAN Soybean,6,th,June,2009 from:,And because the freight charges become higher,the cost of import has gone up.,And there is also NEWS says that,China will import more soybeans for inventory.,All in all,in my opinion,in a very short term,its good for long,and in a mid-long term,its good for short,and in a long termbefore the next harvest,its good for long.,CBOT SEP09 soybean futures contract,Open Interest,:6,th,June,2009,CBOT13,126+;,Volume,:5,th,June,2009,CBOTTOTAL2,216;,Price,:6,th,June,2009,CBOT11010 cent per bushel;,Inventory,:about 130,000,000 bushel before the August.,DCE与CBOT相关品种价格走势对比,5,th,June,2009 from:Dalian Commodity Exchange,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMICDATAS,The Dow Jones Industrial Average has chronicled more than 110 years of investing and has served as a marker through all of the major developments in modern history.,Dow Jones&Company announced that Travelers Companies,Inc.(TRV)and Cisco Systems,Inc.(CSCO)will replace Citigroup,Inc.(C)and General Motors Corp.(GM)in the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA)effective June 8,2009.,The last change to the DJIA was on September 18,2008,when Kraft Foods Incorporated replaced American International Group Incorporated.,And from the graph on the above page,there is a steady rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Index,which manifest that the American Economy and the global economy has gradually recovered from the financial crisis.Thus it provide a comparatively safe environment for future goods.,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,The NASDAQ OMX Group,Inc.is the worlds largest exchange company.It delivers trading,exchange technology and public company services across six continents,with over 3,800 listed companies.NASDAQ OMX offers multiple capital raising solutions to companies around the globe.,Though todays NASDAQ INDEX has fallen down,the it is a very slight decrease,And from the graph,we can see that the behavior of the two indexes are very similar.It also is a phenomenon to extend of the global economic resurgence.,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,3.GDP of China,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,GDP is short for Gross Domestic Product.It is,the measure of an economy adopted by the United States in 1991;the total market values of goods and services produced by workers and capital within a nations borders during a given period(usually 1 year),.,There is a continuous drop in the growth rate of GDP announced by the State Statistics Bureau,which lead to a only 9.9%grow at the same rate of the third season.,The decline of European and American economy relent the external demand of our country,directly resulting in a reduction for our export which is a major component of our GDP.,In Short,the economy of our country is facing a big challenge that necessitate a recovery.The optimistic point say that the decline of economy of our country will stop to ascend in the middle of next year.And this could be the macro-back ground for us to make future goods analysis.,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELATED ECONOMIC DATAS,3 CPI&PPI in China,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,Seeing from the trade and the economic date from January,2009,we can see the CPI and PPI continue to descendent.,And this,in a certain facet,reflects the possibility of deflation in Chinese Economy.,The deflation may have a bad effect on the demand of goods.,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELEVANT COMMIDITY,1.Crude oil prices,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,RELEVANT COMMIDITY,87 percent of the global need of soybean is for grind.So the need for grinding is the most important element that influence the changing of demand for soybean.,But we can see from the graph on the last slip that the price of crude oil begins to ascend,thus the need for soybean oil as a economical substitute is enlarged,.,世界大豆国内消费与压榨消费走势图。
数据来源：美国农业部）,Fundamental Analysis of Soybean 0909,Summary,宏观经济开始复苏,预期世界大豆产量将继续增加，下年度供给充足,压榨需求增长放缓，但是生物燃油概念因原油价格上升而颇具竞争力,全球大豆贸易继续活跃，中国将仍然是主要进口国,08年大豆丰产，进口量增加及国储库存充足使得09年我国大豆供给充足,食用消费稳定，压榨消费继续增加,政府政策效应明显，中国将决心托市保护农民利益,综合分析得出，利多的支持多于利空。
